The latest Miami market data shows the strongest Q1 in years for luxury condos — but inventory is the highest in a decade. Here's what it means for you right now.
Key Takeaways
- Miami home and condo sales rose 15.2% year-over-year in Q1 2026 — the third-strongest first quarter on record for the $1M+ condo segment.
- Active condo inventory hit 14,200 units, the highest in over a decade, giving qualified buyers real negotiating leverage.
- Price per square foot is still near record highs in trophy Miami buildings — the market is splitting between assets buyers want and assets buyers are walking away from.
If you only read one Miami market update this month, make it this one. Because the headlines are saying two completely different things at the same time, and most people are getting confused by it.
On one hand, sales are up. Significantly up. Miami had its third-strongest first quarter on record for $1M+ condos and the eighth straight month of rising overall sales volume. On the other hand, inventory is at a multi-year high, sellers are cutting prices, and average days on market just crossed 78 days.
Both of these statements are true. They are not contradictions. They describe a market that has split in half, and understanding which half your property is in — or which half you're shopping in — is the only thing that matters in the next six months.
I'm Partnership Realty, Miami real estate agent with Partnership Realty, and this is the honest data, the honest analysis, and the honest take on what to do about it.
The Headline Numbers
Let's get the data out of the way first. All figures pulled from Miami Association of Realtors, MIAMI MLS, and Black Book Q1 2026 reports:
- Total residential sales (Miami-Dade): up 15.2% YoY in Q1 2026
- $1M+ condo sales: third-strongest Q1 ever, behind only 2022 and 2023
- Active condo inventory: 14,200 units (highest since 2014)
- Months of supply (condos): 13 months — definitively a buyer's market
- Average days on market (condos): 78 days, up from 41 last June
- Median price per square foot (luxury new construction): still near record highs
- Cash sales as % of luxury transactions: 71%
The two stats that matter most are the inventory and the cash percentage. Inventory tells you who has leverage. Cash tells you who is buying. Both numbers are screaming the same thing: this is a sophisticated-buyer market, not a panicked-buyer market.
The Two Markets Inside Miami Right Now
Here's the part that took me weeks to fully process, and it's not something you'll see articulated clearly in most market reports.
Miami is no longer one real estate market. It's two.
### Market 1: Trophy New Construction (Still Hot)
The top of the market — branded residences, new construction in Brickell and Edgewater, oceanfront luxury — is still selling at or near record price per square foot. The Perigon, Aman Residences, Waldorf Astoria, St. Regis Brickell, Six Fisher Island, Cipriani, Mercedes-Benz Places — these projects are 60% to 95% sold, often at $3,000–$8,000 per square foot, and the buyers are international, cash-heavy, and largely insensitive to interest rates.
If you're shopping in this segment, the inventory glut headlines do not apply to you. The supply of trophy product is shrinking, not expanding. The trade-up game from "trophy" to "ultra-trophy" is still being played at full speed.
### Market 2: Mid-Tier Existing Condos (Glut)
The bottom-three-quarters of the condo market — particularly buildings 15+ years old, those caught in the post-Surfside reserve assessments, and the wave of 2018–2022 vintage Brickell and Edgewater product that's now resale — is where the inventory is piling up. Days on market in this segment are double what they were a year ago. Price cuts in the 6%–12% range are common.
This is where buyers have actual leverage. This is where smart shoppers are negotiating $50K–$150K off list prices, sellers are paying buyer's closing costs, and the better-positioned units are still getting deals done because everyone above them on the price ladder is cutting first.
For more on the underlying dynamics, my earlier piece "Miami Real Estate Late-May 2026: The Two Markets Splitting the City — Record Office Rents Meet a 13-Month Condo Glut" lays out the structural causes.
What This Means If You're Buying in Miami This Summer
Three rules for the mid-2026 Miami buyer:
1. Negotiate hard on resale, but expect no movement on prime new construction. The same week, I had a buyer get $87,000 off a 2019-vintage Brickell condo (8.4% price reduction) and another get told flatly that there were no concessions available on a Mandarin Oriental Brickell Key unit because the developer has 38 buyers behind them in line. Both true. Different products.
2. Read the building's financials before falling in love. Florida's condo reserve law is in full force. If you buy a $1.1M unit in a 22-year-old building with underfunded reserves, you may walk into a $60K–$100K special assessment in year two. My guide "How to Read a Miami Condo Building's Financials Before You Buy" covers exactly which line items to check.
3. Lock financing before you make offers. Rates have stabilized in the high 5s/low 6s, but a pre-approval letter dated within 30 days carries real weight when inventory is high. Sellers in the glut segment are choosing between three offers; the financed buyer with a clean pre-approval often wins over a slightly higher offer with shakier financing.
What This Means If You're Selling in Miami This Summer
If you own in the trophy segment, ride the wave. List at strength, set a tight floor, expect 8–14 weeks to closing, and don't capitulate on price unless you genuinely need speed.
If you own in the mid-tier — and especially if your building is older than 15 years or recently took an assessment — the message is harder. Price aggressively. Stage well. Be willing to do meaningful concessions. The market will reward sellers who price the first time correctly and punish those who chase the market down with three reductions over six months. As I wrote in "Selling Your Miami Home to International Buyers in 2026: The 7-Step Playbook That Closes at the Highest Price," the international buyer pool is the swing vote in this part of the market — and they are price-disciplined.
- Miami Market Snapshot — June 2026:
- Median sale price (Miami-Dade single-family): $645,000 (up 4.2% YoY)
- Median sale price (Miami-Dade condo): $458,000 (down 2.1% YoY)
- Active inventory (all residential): 18,800 units (highest since 2014)
- Cash sales as percentage of luxury transactions: 71%
What This Means If You're an Investor
Three points worth your attention:
Pre-construction is still the most asymmetric trade in Miami. Locking a 2026 contract for a 2029 delivery at today's pricing, with 30%–40% down spread over construction, has historically returned 25%–45% at delivery in Miami's last five development cycles. The new round of project launches (more on that in my upcoming pre-construction breakdowns) deserves a serious look.
Short-term rental approved buildings are commanding a premium. Buildings explicitly designed for Airbnb — 72 Park, The Crosby, DUOS Wynwood, Standard Residences Midtown — are seeing 5%–8% pricing premiums over comparable traditional condos because the operational uncertainty has been removed. Many investors are willing to pay for this clarity.
Commercial is the under-discussed opportunity. Brickell Class A office rents at $200/SqFt are pulling business owners into ownership over leasing. Industrial vacancies under 4%. Triple net retail cap rates have expanded 100+ basis points. If your investment thesis is yield rather than appreciation, commercial is more interesting right now than residential.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is now a good time to buy a condo in Miami? A: For qualified buyers, yes — particularly in the resale and mid-tier segments where 13 months of supply gives you real leverage. The negotiation environment is the most buyer-favorable it's been in over a decade. For trophy new construction, the calculation is different: prices are still firm, but the trade-up potential remains strong.
Q: When will Miami condo prices stop falling? A: They aren't falling broadly — the median is down 2.1% YoY on condos and up 4.2% on single-family. What's happening is a tiered correction: older mid-tier condos with reserve issues are absorbing most of the price weakness, while trophy product is firm to up. Most analysts expect the mid-tier to stabilize through late 2026 as inventory clears.
Q: Should I sell my Miami investment property now or wait? A: It depends entirely on which segment your property is in. If it's a well-located, well-financialized building or a single-family in a top neighborhood, holding through this cycle is likely fine. If it's a 20+ year-old condo facing reserve assessments, selling into the current World Cup buyer demand window is often the smarter play.
Q: How does the 2026 FIFA World Cup affect Miami real estate? A: The Hard Rock Stadium matches have created a sustained pulse of international short-term rental demand and luxury sales interest, particularly from Latin American, European, and Middle Eastern buyers. The bump is real but uneven — concentrated in trophy product and short-term rental approved buildings rather than spread across the whole market.
¿Listo para hacer tu movimiento? Llámame.
Partnership Realty / Partnership Realty Inc / +1 (561) 629-0358 / carloscabalerealtor.com
Partnership Realty Editorial
Content Team · Partnership Realty Inc
+1 (305) 340-6251 · partnershiprealtyinc.com